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Thursday 2 October 2014

Module Tiericide and Market effects - A strategic opportunity

With the release of the Oceanus patch notes Tiericide updates have started to flow through and these will have some significant impacts on the prices of items in the market whilst these get introduced over time.

Current Item Structure Basics
So there are generally 6 levels of most items associated with modules currently. This is evidently being changed with the introduction of Tiericide. There are also some that sit outside of this including civilian modules and faction and Officer modules but I wont go into them here.

So the basics are
Item Name - Tech 1               Basic
Item Name -  Meta Level 1    Upgrade 1
Item Name -  Meta Level 2    Upgrade 2
Item Name -  Meta Level 3    Upgrade 3
Item Name -  Meta Level 4    Upgrade 4
Item Name - Tech 2               Fully upgraded

The price of these relate to the fitting requirements and benefit output (combination of skill training ,CPU/Power requirements and bonuses provided by the item)

Now I am going to discuss an opportunity that exists regarding the price difference in Meta Level 3 and Meta Level 4 modules. Meta 4 modules can be exceedingly expensive as they are very close to if not exceeding the benefits of the Tech 2 without the skill requirements and can often have less fitting requirements which means you can fit your ship more efficiently. Meta 3 modules are reasonably priced due to the fact that they are not the "best" fit which people like me like to ensure they have!

Tiericide Changes
It appears that they are changing the above to reflect half as many intermediate "Meta Levels" effectively combining Meta 1-2 and Meta 3-4.

Item Name - Tech 1                           Basic
Item Name -  Intermediate name 1 - Combined previous Meta 1 and 2 - Upgrade 1
Item Name -  Intermediate name 1 - Combined previous Meta 3 and 4 - Upgrade 2
Item Name - Tech 2                          Fully upgraded

So given the above exposed exchanges in the Oceanus release if someone was to buy up a large amount of Meta 3 (reasonably priced modules) and await the combining of the said item with the Meta 4 modules then it is likely that the price would have gone up for the Meta 3 which has now been transformed into the Upgrade 2 item as per the Tiericide table above.

So some points to consider

  • Only a small amount of items were changed in Oceanus, given this it may be difficult to predict what will be changed next unless information is available elsewhere. This would have an effect on how long you may need to hold these items before they gain value
  • The stats are also being changed so doing further research and comparison on what the differences are likely to be on the Upgrade 2 version versus the Tech 2 variant, given what items have already been changed would give you an indication on the risk associated with this opportunity.
  • It is likely that the market will ride several waves so getting in early and getting out early may be a relevant strategy. If numerous people are buying modules for the above mentioned reasons then the price will likely go up for Meta 3 items well before the Tiericide for that item is introduced.
  • Additionally there may well be several waves post the introduction due to a likely surplus which would drop the price intially.
  • I would consider this a long term opportunity if you wanted to ride all the waves out but there may well be short term opportunities to consider.
  • If this is a viable market option then it is also likely that prices may have already started to spike for Meta 3 and drop for Meta 4.
  • Most importantly is Tiericide going to continue down exactly the same path that we have seen for the Oceanus release. Will all items be combined  and "Tiericided" in the same fashion!
Please see a professional financial adviser as I will not be held accountable for inferred advice being provided in this blog.........

Remember, fly dangerous, just don't throw in your Meta 3 modules its tiericide!

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